Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 157.988607 190.738371 231.035625 285.132857 357.222312 4.520329e+02 5.897718e+02
2025-01-12 120.330994 158.485107 211.484705 293.447958 422.922230 6.312739e+02 1.020718e+03
2025-01-19 96.081387 133.788807 190.513544 287.300634 460.756181 7.890616e+02 1.558284e+03
2025-01-26 86.957469 127.386409 192.894312 315.902540 566.959227 1.135952e+03 2.901457e+03
2025-02-02 79.366642 121.148977 193.138302 339.938599 677.136670 1.589269e+03 5.466168e+03
2025-02-09 72.766682 114.934574 191.456511 359.171022 788.580601 2.172802e+03 1.062103e+04
2025-02-16 66.562932 108.114239 186.833077 370.336613 888.038864 2.863749e+03 2.107068e+04
2025-02-23 61.187063 101.800453 181.681937 378.453408 986.075183 3.731991e+03 4.552266e+04
2025-03-02 55.249032 93.489487 170.735448 368.789847 1023.332668 4.410910e+03 8.910716e+04
2025-03-09 50.278923 86.355843 160.975286 359.335869 1057.526544 5.186474e+03 1.954407e+05
2025-03-16 45.689034 79.392206 150.412430 344.736722 1064.948279 5.844159e+03 4.410169e+05
2025-03-23 44.767463 79.681708 156.160316 378.645717 1302.322600 9.373279e+03 1.643923e+07
2025-03-30 41.791873 75.509334 151.193597 380.246740 1406.544036 1.241235e+04 NaN
2025-04-06 39.855536 73.313689 150.662773 396.419068 1610.162038 1.900704e+04 NaN
2025-04-13 37.000330 68.779215 143.533800 388.074652 1671.012029 2.411736e+04 NaN
2025-04-20 36.558051 69.512396 150.020614 431.018334 2126.994839 5.290656e+04 NaN
2025-04-27 35.760856 69.328418 154.069735 467.427596 2626.424969 1.255311e+05 NaN
2025-05-04 34.717500 68.433010 155.998141 496.801399 3154.666933 3.376034e+05 NaN
2025-05-11 33.373098 66.656271 155.085680 513.955456 3626.880117 1.004974e+06 NaN
2025-05-18 32.009481 64.678634 153.242196 526.471589 4105.251629 4.296672e+06 NaN
2025-05-25 30.106590 61.179721 146.254522 511.575279 4199.705307 1.219719e+07 NaN
2025-06-01 28.381767 57.976292 139.745969 497.056173 4285.181025 5.319446e+07 NaN
2025-06-08 26.634123 54.571093 132.171622 474.742219 4213.777711 2.057767e+08 NaN